“The impulse is emotional. The slogan is simple. But politically, it is lethal.”

That’s Third Way, the center-left Democratic think tank, warning their party that “Abolish ICE” is about to destroy another election cycle.

The memo came out Tuesday, days after the Minneapolis shooting renewed progressive calls to eliminate immigration enforcement entirely.

Third Way is pleading with Democrats to learn from 2020. They won’t.

The “Defund the Police” Parallel

Third Way draws the explicit comparison.

“The lesson is clear: when the debate sinks into polarizing slogans that read as anti-law or anti-safety, space for practical reform disappears.”

“Defund the Police” became a millstone around Democrats’ necks in 2020 and beyond. Candidates spent years trying to distance themselves from a slogan their base embraced enthusiastically.

It cost them House seats. It hurt Biden in swing states. It became a punchline that Republicans used relentlessly.

Now Democrats are doing it again — this time with immigration enforcement.

“Abolish Abuses, Not ICE”

Third Way’s alternative framing: focus on reforming ICE rather than eliminating it.

“Immigration laws are meaningless if they are not enforced. And they can be enforced in ways that protect public safety, respect legal norms, and uphold civil liberties.”

That’s a reasonable political position. It acknowledges that enforcement is necessary while criticizing how it’s conducted.

But “Abolish Abuses, Not ICE” doesn’t fit on a protest sign. It doesn’t generate social media engagement. It doesn’t satisfy the progressive base’s desire for maximalist demands.

So it won’t be adopted.

The Progressive Response

Right on cue, Rep. Ayanna Pressley demonstrated why Third Way’s advice will be ignored.

“I will continue to demand an independent and thorough investigation, continue to call on Congress in this moment to use appropriations and the power of the purse to rein in ICE. Again, I believe it should be abolished.”

Pressley isn’t backing down. She’s doubling down. So are most progressives.

The Squad doesn’t care about political viability. They represent safe blue districts. They answer to progressive activists, not swing voters.

And their voices are louder than any think tank memo.

The Political Reality

Third Way laid out the strategic problem clearly.

“Every call to abolish ICE risks squandering one of the clearest opportunities in years to secure meaningful reform of immigration enforcement — while handing Republicans exactly the fight they want.”

Republicans want this fight. They want Democrats on record opposing immigration enforcement. They want the contrast between “law and order” and “abolish ICE.”

Trump is already using it. Every protest, every confrontation, every progressive demand to eliminate enforcement becomes campaign footage.

And Democrats keep providing the material.

Voters Understand Enforcement Is Necessary

The memo acknowledges an uncomfortable truth for progressives.

“Voters responded strongly to what they saw as a lack of enforcement under President Biden.”

That’s a polite way of saying Biden’s immigration policies were political poison. Open borders. Catch and release. Millions arriving annually.

Voters rejected it decisively in 2024. They elected Trump specifically to fix the border.

Now progressives want to respond by… demanding even less enforcement?

“Excess, Escalation, and Lawlessness”

Third Way still criticizes Trump’s approach as “defined by excess, escalation, and lawlessness.”

They’re trying to thread a needle: acknowledge that enforcement is necessary while opposing how Trump conducts it.

It’s a defensible position substantively. But it requires nuance. It requires distinguishing between legitimate enforcement and excessive force.

“Abolish ICE” requires no nuance. It’s a bumper sticker. It’s a chant. It’s exactly the kind of slogan that energizes the base while alienating everyone else.

The Base vs. The Electorate

This is the fundamental Democratic dilemma.

Their activist base wants maximalist positions. Abolish ICE. Defund police. Open borders. No enforcement.

Their electoral coalition requires moderation. Swing voters want security. They want enforcement. They want order.

Democrats can’t satisfy both. Every time they try, they end up looking weak — unable to control their own party’s messaging.

Third Way is begging them to prioritize electoral viability. The base is demanding ideological purity.

We’ve seen this movie before. It ended with “Defund the Police” costing Democrats seats nationwide.

Whoopi Had to Walk It Back

The memo comes as even liberal media figures are getting pushback.

Whoopi Goldberg had to walk back comments suggesting ICE agents are “violent criminals.” The rhetoric is getting so extreme that even The View is course-correcting.

But Pressley isn’t walking anything back. Neither are the protesters. Neither are the professors calling for “Nuremberg trials” for ICE agents.

The Democratic Party is being pulled toward a position that’s electoral suicide — and they seem unable to stop it.

What Third Way Missed

The memo is politically astute but misses something important.

It treats “Abolish ICE” as a messaging problem — a slogan that polls badly and should be replaced with better framing.

But for many progressives, it’s not a slogan. It’s a genuine belief. They actually want to eliminate immigration enforcement. They actually think borders are racist. They actually view ICE agents as the moral equivalent of Nazis.

You can’t fix that with better messaging. You can’t rebrand a position that’s fundamentally extreme.

Republicans Are Watching

Every Democrat who calls for abolishing ICE is creating campaign ads for Republicans.

Every protest where activists block ICE vehicles is footage for November.

Every progressive demanding “Nuremberg trials” for federal agents is a gift to GOP candidates.

Third Way sees this clearly. They’re warning their party. They’re begging for restraint.

It won’t work. The progressive base is in control. The slogans are set. The protests are organized.

“Abolish ICE” is the new “Defund the Police.”

Democrats are about to learn the same lesson they learned in 2020.

And Republicans are going to enjoy watching it happen.